网文来自网友原文翻译投稿，所有言论皆不代表本站立场 | 本文文字/图片来自网络，侵删 | 点击页眉也可刷新 | 注册送50花瓣，每日登录送5花瓣 | 本文内容仅供娱乐，不作任何严肃之用途中国中产阶级削减开支：中国经济面临风险吗？ | 亚洲中产阶级的变化本文译自Youtube，原标题：China’s Middle Class Cuts Spending: Is Its Economy At Risk? | Asia's Changing Middle Class | InsightWith over 400 million, China’s middle class is larger than the population of the United States.This group is expected to drive consumption and economic growth. The Chinese middle class, however, have instead tightened their purse strings. Savings hover near record highs. In China, the luxury goods market saw a 20 percent drop in sales last year. It is the sharpest decline in 14 years and spending in this sector is expected to be muted in 2025.As Chinese suppliers look to other markets to absorb their products, small businesses in Southeast Asia struggle to compete with deluge of low-priced Chinese exports. Spurring investment and consumption have been high on the government’s agenda, but a trade war with the US is escalating. What happens if the world’s largest middle class continues to scrimp and save?中国的中产阶级人数超过4亿，比美国的总人口还要多。这一群体本应推动消费和经济的增长，然而，中国的中产阶级却收紧了钱袋子，他们的储蓄率接近历史高点。去年，中国的奢侈品市场销售额下降了20%，这是14年来的最大跌幅，预计到2025年该领域的消费仍将疲软。随着中国供应商寻求其他市场来消化其产品，东南亚的小企业难以与大量低价的中国出口商品竞争。刺激投资和消费一直是中国政府的重要议程，但与美国的贸易战正在升级。如果世界上最大的中产阶级继续节衣缩食，会发生什么？Drop in house prices is happening everywhere. But 5% growth during this kind of drop its amazing and i think China is doing very well for that reason! i am from UK and now live in China, in Hainan, all i can say is that in the last 2 years the island came back to life and i can definitely see people spending more money. I dont know how the rest of the country is but here its very good signs.房价下跌在世界各地都在发生，但在这种下跌中仍有5%的经济增长，这真是令人惊讶，我认为中国因此表现得非常棒！我来自英国，现在生活在中国的海南省，我只能说在过去的两年里，这个岛屿重新焕发了生机，我确实看到了人们花更多的钱。我不知道全国其他地方的情况如何，但这里的迹象非常好。
China has many more houses than people. With a shrinking population, why should the housing ever go up? If anything it will go down! In my opinion, China has enough real estate and its time for the value to be set at the real level which is much lower.中国的房子比其人口多得多。随着人口减少，房价为什么会上涨？如果有变化，它只会下跌！在我看来，中国有足够的房地产，现在是时候将房价设定在更低的实际水平了。
I have noticed that majority of current younger generation don't know about saving and investing money and prioritize luxury and enjoyment even if they have to go in debt while the rest have self-taught themselves and have good financial education. The society is more polarized now. Many parents are also not teaching this to their children even though they themselves had struggled and saved every rupee/yuan/yen possible.我注意到当前大多数年轻一代不知道如何储蓄和投资，他们会优先考虑奢侈和享受（即使这意味着负债），而其他人则自学并接受了良好的金融教育，社会现在更加两极分化。许多父母也没有教孩子这些，尽管他们自己曾经努力储蓄每一分钱。
That property craze is hard to explain. In the USA people do buy second properties but they always have the prospect of generating rental income regardless of whether the property's value goes up or down. It seems like Chinese people never thought about who would end up living in all those apartments.这种房地产狂热很难解释。在美国，人们确实会购买第二套房产，但无论房产价值是涨是跌，他们总是会有产生租金收入的预期。似乎中国人从未想过谁会住进所有这些公寓。
While the middle class are "saving", are the money that they saved in banks truly "safe"? There has been several incidents of Chinese residents facing hurdles accessing/ withdrawing their savings from the banks. They are denied access with reasons like they have to prove the source of the money is legal, difficulty in authenticating themselves even when they show up in person and to "prevent them from falling into money fraud".当中产阶级在“储蓄”时，他们存在银行的钱真的“安全”吗？已经发生过几起中国居民在存取款时遇到障碍的事件了，他们被拒绝的理由包括必须证明资金的来源合法、即使亲自到场也难以验证身份以及“防止他们陷入金钱诈骗”。
I can't imagine the pressure on the Chinese young people. They carried so much expectation from their parents to " perform " . Sure, the parents sacrifice a lot for their kids, but it should be out of love, and not as an investment and expecting a certain return.我无法想象中国年轻人的压力。他们背负着父母太多的期望去“表现”。当然，父母也为孩子牺牲了很多，但这应该是出于爱而不是作为一种投资并期望某种回报。
Well... we have to keep this in mind...... even average Asian Americans spend less than average Americans, even though they have a higher income,... even in good times. They tend to invest more, and spend less. Having said that... however, I notice that Asians can spend a lot on quality and bulk food items.好吧……我们必须记住……即使亚裔美国人的平均收入更高，他们的花费也比普通美国人更少，即使在好时期也是如此。他们倾向于更多地投资，更少地花费。话虽如此……然而，我注意到亚洲人会在高质量和大量的食品上花费很多。
Japan was spending crazily during the bubble in the 1980s. It still hasn't recovered, and probably never will. China is the same. People really believed property prices and salaries will never fall. When you wake up from the dream, you can't spend like you did in the past.日本在1980年代的泡沫时期疯狂消费，它至今仍未恢复，可能永远也不会恢复。中国也是如此，人们真的相信房价和薪水永远不会下降，但当你从梦中醒来时，你就不能再像过去那样花钱了。
There are distinct differences between these two countries, comparing China with Japan is like comparing apples with oranges. The Bank of Japan in the 1980s tinkered with their interest rates sharply (which many believe contributed to its downfall), China did not; Japan’s industrial power was privately led, China is state led which seems much more coordinated; Japan in the 1980s is already highly urbanised while China has not yet and therefore has more rooms for continual growth compared to Japan in the 1980s; Japan in the 1980s is not as globally integrated in trade, unlike China is the largest trading partner for the majority of the global countries; while Japan in the 1980s excel in electronics, it is unlike China which is the global manufacturing hub and also leader in many current technological sectors; unlike Japan, China maintains a very tight yuan exchange rate and monetary control. Hence Japan’s “Lost Decades" would be less likely to impact China because China is a much stronger country due to its structural strength comparative to Japan’s weaker situation in the 1980s.这两个国家存在明显的不同，将中国与日本比较就像比较苹果和桔子。1980年代的日本银行大幅调整了利率（许多人认为这导致了它的衰落），而中国没有；日本的工业力量是私人主导的，而中国是国家主导的，它似乎更加协调；1980年代的日本已经高度城市化，而中国还没有，因此与1980年代的日本相比，中国有更多的持续增长空间；1980年代的日本在全球贸易中的一体化程度不高，而中国是全球大多数国家的最大的贸易伙伴；1980年代的日本在电子领域表现出色，而中国是全球制造业中心，也是许多当前技术领域的领导者；与日本不同，中国保持了非常严格的人民币汇率和货币控制。因此，日本的“失去的几十年”不太可能影响中国，因为中国由于其结构性优势，它比1980年代的日本更强大。
It's a boom bust cycle. Japan had it too in the early 90s, but they had a much harder time bouncing back because they were slow to adapt to changing technology such as computers and the internet.China has no such weakness. The chinese are much quicker to adapt and innovate new technologies that'll take mankind to the space age. If anything it's a great time to buy stocks.As long as China keeps the peace and keeps free trade throughout the world. The future is looking bright.这是一个繁荣与萧条的周期。日本在上世纪90年代初也经历过，但由于他们在适应计算机和互联网等新技术方面进展缓慢，因此更难恢复。
中国没有这样的弱点。中国人更快地适应和创新了新技术，这些技术将把人类带入太空时代。如果有什么不同的话，现在是一个购买股票的好时机。
只要中国保持和平并在全球范围内保持自由贸易，未来看起来是光明的。
That's not true. China will be a global leader in technologies such as AI, but it will contribute to a worsening unemployment rate. The unemployment rate among young people is already about 20%, and if the unemployment rate in China worsens further, the middle class will decrease and lead to social unrest. Both China's corporate price index and consumer price index are negative.这不是真的。虽然中国将成为人工智能等技术的全球领导者，但这将导致失业率进一步恶化。中国年轻人的失业率已经达到20%左右，如果中国的失业率进一步恶化，中国的中产阶级将减少并导致社会动荡。现在中国的企业价格指数和消费者价格指数均为负值。
China has a MASSIVE demographic problem. The population is crashing and China has the world's fastest aging population. Old people spend less. The young generation don't want to marry and have kids anymore so the problem is going to continue to worsen. There is a world of pain ahead for the Chinese economy in the coming decades. I live in Beijing....EVERYONE in China knows spending is down because of the aging population.中国有一个巨大的人口问题。他们的人口正在崩溃，中国拥有世界上老龄化速度最快的人口。老年人花费更少，而年轻一代不再想结婚生子，所以问题将继续恶化。未来几十年，中国经济将面临巨大的痛苦。我生活在北京……由于中国的每个人都知道人口老龄化，他们的支出在下降。
Ohhh how the tables have turned. Just a few generations ago, the Chinese Gen X will proudly say how poor the White middle class in the west are at saving money, but now, the modern Chinese middle class would make the white middle class flinch. Financing middle class luxury brands (LV, Gucci, Chanel), Porsche 911s, real estate in a mere $1000-1500 USD/Month salary.哦，情况真是大不相同了。就在几代人之前，中国的X世代会自豪地说西方的白人中产阶级多么不善于存钱，但现在，现代中国的中产阶级会让白人中产阶级咋舌，因为他们会用每月1000-1500美元的薪水来购买中产阶级的奢侈品牌（LV、Gucci、Chanel）、保时捷911和房地产。
it's not only China, even SEA asia, maybe the whole Asia or the whole world, have middle class count constantly dropping. Everyone's too poor to afford anything nowadays. It's obvious there's going to be a cut in spending. The only one unaffected segment are really only basic need goods, or the ultra luxurious or niche stuffs whose the very rich keep sustaining by themselves.不仅是中国，甚至东南亚，也许是整个亚洲或整个世界，中产阶级的数量都在不断下降。如今每个人都太穷了，买不起任何东西。显然，他们的支出将会减少。唯一不受影响的领域是基本生活必需品，或者由极富阶层自己维持的超奢侈品或小众商品。
It's the same situation in most countries these days for the middle class. Land and property speculation and hoarding not only by households but made worse several times by large corporations, investment funds... which led to further housing shortages, distribution inequality, unaffordability, property bubble.如今，中产阶级在大多数国家都面临同样的情况。土地和房产的投机和囤积不仅由家庭进行，大型企业和投资基金更是加剧了这一问题，这导致了住房短缺、分配不平等、负担不起和房地产泡沫。
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